latest marble analysis

Developing_Marbles/Analyze.Rmd

@@ -13,6 +13,8 @@ library(cowplot)
 library(tidyverse)
 library(rstan)
 source("../../../R/Helpers/Start_Workflow.R")
+source('../../../R/Helpers/R_rainclouds.R')
+#source('../../../R/Helpers/summarySE.R')
 ```
 
 # Marble Data 
@@ -241,12 +243,11 @@ Participants also were all Optimistic for low probabilites and Pessimistic for h
 ## Who is most Confident?
 
 ```{r}
-
-
 MarbleData%>%filter(DFE1DFD0=="1"&PercentBlueEstimate!="NULL")%>%
   ggplot(aes(x=Agegroup,y=HowSure,alpha=Agegroup))+
   stat_summary(geom="bar",fun.y="mean")+
   stat_summary(geom="pointrange",fun.y=mean,fun.ymin =function(x) mean(x)-1.96*(sd(x)/sqrt(length(x))),fun.ymax=function(x) mean(x)+1.96*(sd(x)/sqrt(length(x))),position = position_dodge(0.9),alpha=0.7)+
+  #geom_jitter(aes(x=as.numeric(Agegroup),y=HowSure))+
   scale_x_discrete(name="Agegroup",breaks=c(0,1,2),labels=c("Kids","Adolescents","Adults"))+
   scale_y_continuous(name="Confidence Rating")+
   guides(alpha=F)+
@@ -257,7 +258,27 @@ ggsave(filename="X_Figures/Confidence.pdf")
 
 ```
 
+##### Is this substantial? 
+
+Probably not.
 Adolescents report to be least confident with their estimation. 
+But if we look at the whole spectrum all age groups actually do seem fairly similar to one another.
+
+```{r}
+
+
+MarbleData%>%filter(DFE1DFD0=="1"&PercentBlueEstimate!="NULL")%>%
+  ggplot(aes(y=HowSure,x=Agegroup,group=Agegroup))+
+  geom_jitter(aes(color=PercentBlueShownRel),width = 0.1)+
+  # stat_summary(fun.data = mean_cl_boot,geom="pointrange",size=1,color="red")+
+  geom_flat_violin(position = position_nudge(x = .25, y = 0),adjust =2, trim = TRUE,alpha=0.1,fill="black")+
+  geom_boxplot(aes(x = as.numeric(Agegroup)+0.2, y = HowSure),outlier.shape = NA, alpha = 0.3, width = .1, colour = "BLACK", nudge_x = 1, nudge_y = 2) +
+  scale_color_viridis_d(name="Observed outcome Probability")+
+  scale_x_discrete(name="Agegroup",breaks=c(0,1,2),labels=c("Kids","Adolescents","Adults"))+
+  #geom_hline(yintercept = 150,linetype="dotdash")+
+  scale_y_continuous(name="Confidence Rating")+
+  ggtitle("Mean Confidence per Subject")
+```
 
 ## How does the Estimation Accuracy Relate to Confidence?
 

Developing_Marbles/README.md

 Developping\_Marbles
 ================
 Simon
-16/01/2019
+06/05/2019
 
 -   [Marble Data](#marble-data)
 -   [look at the subjects.](#look-at-the-subjects.)
@@ -11,6 +11,7 @@ Simon
 -   [Within subject change.](#within-subject-change.)
     -   [How Good were they at Estimating?](#how-good-were-they-at-estimating)
     -   [Who is most Confident?](#who-is-most-confident)
+        -   [Is this substantial?](#is-this-substantial)
     -   [How does the Estimation Accuracy Relate to Confidence?](#how-does-the-estimation-accuracy-relate-to-confidence)
         -   [Inverse U?](#inverse-u)
 -   [Here i prepare the Rest of the Data](#here-i-prepare-the-rest-of-the-data)
@@ -154,6 +155,7 @@ MarbleData%>%filter(DFE1DFD0=="1"&PercentBlueEstimate!="NULL")%>%
   ggplot(aes(x=Agegroup,y=HowSure,alpha=Agegroup))+
   stat_summary(geom="bar",fun.y="mean")+
   stat_summary(geom="pointrange",fun.y=mean,fun.ymin =function(x) mean(x)-1.96*(sd(x)/sqrt(length(x))),fun.ymax=function(x) mean(x)+1.96*(sd(x)/sqrt(length(x))),position = position_dodge(0.9),alpha=0.7)+
+  #geom_jitter(aes(x=as.numeric(Agegroup),y=HowSure))+
   scale_x_discrete(name="Agegroup",breaks=c(0,1,2),labels=c("Kids","Adolescents","Adults"))+
   scale_y_continuous(name="Confidence Rating")+
   guides(alpha=F)+
@@ -173,7 +175,27 @@ ggsave(filename="X_Figures/Confidence.pdf")
 
     ## Warning: Using alpha for a discrete variable is not advised.
 
-Adolescents report to be least confident with their estimation.
+##### Is this substantial?
+
+Probably not. Adolescents report to be least confident with their estimation. But if we look at the whole spectrum all age groups actually do seem fairly similar to one another.
+
+``` r
+MarbleData%>%filter(DFE1DFD0=="1"&PercentBlueEstimate!="NULL")%>%
+  ggplot(aes(y=HowSure,x=Agegroup,group=Agegroup))+
+  geom_jitter(aes(color=PercentBlueShownRel),width = 0.1)+
+  # stat_summary(fun.data = mean_cl_boot,geom="pointrange",size=1,color="red")+
+  geom_flat_violin(position = position_nudge(x = .25, y = 0),adjust =2, trim = TRUE,alpha=0.1,fill="black")+
+  geom_boxplot(aes(x = as.numeric(Agegroup)+0.2, y = HowSure),outlier.shape = NA, alpha = 0.3, width = .1, colour = "BLACK", nudge_x = 1, nudge_y = 2) +
+  scale_color_viridis_d(name="Observed outcome Probability")+
+  scale_x_discrete(name="Agegroup",breaks=c(0,1,2),labels=c("Kids","Adolescents","Adults"))+
+  #geom_hline(yintercept = 150,linetype="dotdash")+
+  scale_y_continuous(name="Confidence Rating")+
+  ggtitle("Mean Confidence per Subject")
+```
+
+    ## Warning: Ignoring unknown parameters: nudge_x, nudge_y
+
+![](Analyze_files/figure-markdown_github/unnamed-chunk-7-1.png)
 
 How does the Estimation Accuracy Relate to Confidence?
 ------------------------------------------------------
@@ -205,7 +227,7 @@ MarbleData%>%filter(DFE1DFD0=="1"&PercentBlueEstimate!="NULL")%>%mutate(
 
     ## Warning: Removed 4 rows containing missing values (geom_pointrange).
 
-![](Analyze_files/figure-markdown_github/unnamed-chunk-7-1.png)
+![](Analyze_files/figure-markdown_github/unnamed-chunk-8-1.png)
 
 I cant make much of this inverted U shape. Does this really mean, that when they are super wrong, then they are most confident? This bias seems to be least present in Kids.
 
@@ -238,7 +260,7 @@ MarbleData%>%filter(DFE1DFD0=="1"&PercentBlueEstimate!="NULL")%>%mutate(
 
     ## Warning: Removed 14 rows containing missing values (geom_pointrange).
 
-![](Analyze_files/figure-markdown_github/unnamed-chunk-8-1.png)
+![](Analyze_files/figure-markdown_github/unnamed-chunk-9-1.png)
 
 Here i prepare the Rest of the Data
 ===================================